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Rate of Return: Only Half the Formula

By Lon Jefferies | Published: December 21, 2010

In this month’s Financial Planning Magazine, Craig Israelsen noted a simple principle of investing that is often forgotten. Consider his example:

A 25-year-old earning $35,000 per year, who receives a 3% raise each year over the next 40 years, invests 10% of her income into a 401(k). This individual will have accumulated $275,000 by the time she retires assuming a 0% rate of return — in other words, she will have contributed this amount over the 40 years. Thus, making contributions is the first engine of growth.

The second engine of growth is return. Assuming this individual achieved a 6% annual rate of return, she will have $880,000 when she retires. Clearly, returns are a critical element impacting the account value, but so are her contributions.

If this individual still achieves a 6% annual return, but only contributes 2% of her salary each year, after 40 years her balance would be only $176,000. To achieve an ending balance of $880,000 while only contributing 2% of her salary, the portfolio would need to generate an annualized return of 12.4%. Historical rate of returns illustrate that this type of return is not likely to be achieved over the long run. Thus, contributions to savings, not rate of return, is the primary factor necessary to help you reach your retirement goals.

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Equally Weighted vs. Cap Weighted

By Lon Jefferies | Published: December 16, 2010

Did you know there are two versions of the popular S&P 500 market index? The equally weighted version is similar to investing the same amount of money in each of the 500 stocks tracked. This varies from the more popular capitalization weighted version of the index, which is effected more by the movements of larger companies.

It has been widely reported that the S&P 500 averaged an annualized loss of 1% during the last decade (these statistics represent the performance of the cap-weighted version of the index). You might be surprised to learn that the equally weighted version of the index (ticker: S&P EWI) gained 6% annually over the same period, even though it invested in the exact same companies.

A main factor contributing to this disparity is the fact that the equally weighted version of the index is rebalanced quarterly, while the cap-weighted benchmark is not rebalanced. This is further evidence that rebalancing is a systematic strategy that’s intent on buying low and selling high.

Sidenote: The “Best Stocks, Best Funds” proprietary strategy utilized by Net Worth Advisory Group operates similarly to the equally weighted version of the S&P 500. For instance, each of our stock portfolios (large cap growth, international value, etc.) consist of 50 stocks with an equal investment in each stock. Consequently, we do not place larger bets on some companies than on others. Further, the “Best Stocks, Best Funds” strategy is rebalanced annually, normally near the beginning of each calendar year.

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Details of the New Tax Proposal

By Lon Jefferies | Published: December 13, 2010

My associate, Curtis Smith, CFP, recently summed up Obama’s proposed tax plan. Below is a summary of the items being discussed:

  • The 10%, 15%, 25%, 28%, 33%, and 35% marginal tax rate structure would be preserved through 2012.
  • A one-year, 2% cut in payroll taxes would make up for the expiration of the “Making Work Pay” tax credit. This 2% cut in payroll taxes would apply to employees only — employers still need to pay the full cost. It is estimated that this will ultimately cost $120 billion in revenue.
  • The estate tax would be set at 35% with a $5 million exemption per individual. Consequently, married couples who use their exemptions properly would not need to pay estate taxes if their estate is less than $10 million.
  • Long-term jobless benefits would be extended through the end of 2011. This is estimated to cost $56 billion. NOTE: this is an extension of the program as a whole, not an extension of an individual’s benefits. An unemployed individual will still only be able to collect benefits as long as before, but the program paying the benefits will be around for another 13 months.
  • Businesses would be able to expense 100% of their investments in 2011 (retroactive to September 2010).
  • The present R&D tax credit and other business-incentive credits would be extended through 2012.
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Investment Fees Reexamined

By Lon Jefferies | Published: November 30, 2010

More and more, it is becoming clear that fees are a large determinate of investment performance. In this month’s issue of NAPFA Advisor, Vern Sumnicht, MBA, CFP, discussed a study by State Street Corp. and the Wharton School of Business that found just 43 percent of investors understand the fees associated with their investments even “fairly well.” However, in a low-return environment, reducing costs becomes an increasingly critical way to improve investment returns for any portfolio.

The following is a portion of the study’s findings:

“Typically, actively managed equity-based mutual funds without commissions (no-load) charge about 1 percent to 2 percent each year inside the fund, to manage and operate the fund. However, there are additional costs that are not typically considered in the cost equation. Transaction costs — the costs to buy and sell stocks inside the fund — can add another (undisclosed) 0.5 percent to 1.5 percent annually to an investor’s cost to hold that mutual fund investment.

Additionally, when fund managers are faced with redemptions, they must sell securities from the fund’s holdings to provide cash for the redemptions. When these securities are sold for a gain, the sale triggers a taxable event for the remaining investors holding the fund in non-qualified accounts, whether the investor has been a shareholder for 10 years or 10 days. Furthermore, many funds wait until late in December to make their capital gains distributions known, leaving little or no time for investors to make other decisions to offset the tax liability. These costs can add an additional 0.5 percent to 2 percent to the annual cost for investors.”

Combining these fees, investing in a mutual fund can incur charges of between 2 percent and 5.5 percent — obviously significant. Keep in mind, this study doesn’t even account for any additional fees charged by a financial advisor for monitoring your account. This illustrates the importance of keeping a close eye on fees when analyzing potential investments.

Finally, the study affirms my belief that the advisors of Net Worth Advisory Group really do add tremendous value to their clients retirement planning efforts. In most cases, we charge no more than 1.5 percent for our services. This is an all-inclusive fee, covering investment management, transaction fees, and meeting twice a year to review investment performance and update your financial plan. Further, we invest our client’s funds into individual stocks as opposed to mutual funds, saving them fees and allowing more control over tax implications. Lastly, our advisors shake the hands of our clients, develop personal relationships, and provide individual-specific advice — something a mutual fund can never do.

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Reducing Tax Liability in 2010 and Beyond

By Lon Jefferies | Published: November 19, 2010

Tax planning has always been a very challenging element of the financial planning process. This year it has been especially difficult in light of the uncertainty associated with the pending changes to the tax code. As you may be aware, the tax cuts established by the Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001 and the Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003 (both of these acts are commonly referred to as the Bush tax cuts) are set to expire at the end of the year. There has been considerable debate as to whether or not these tax cuts should be extended. With a lame duck congress now in session, time will tell what the eventual outcome will be.

So how do we properly tax plan in the face of such uncertainty? It is crucial to understand your personal situation and how the pending changes could impact you. One of the primary concerns for many taxpayers is the possibility of higher income tax rates as early as next year. If the tax cuts are not extended the current low and high tax rates will increase from 10% and 35% to 15% and 39.6%. Additionally, the maximum capital gains rate will increase from 15% to 20%. Understanding how each case impacts your personal situation can be very helpful in preparing a strategy. Once you understand this you can begin to assess a probability to the potential outcomes and begin making critical tax planning decisions.

Without offering specific tax advice in this newsletter, the following ideas are typically very important considerations to make at the end of each year:

  • As always, consider optimizing contributions to your tax-advantaged investment accounts (i.e. 401K, IRA, Roth IRA, etc.). Investment vehicles such as 401Ks and IRAs enable you to lower your current tax bill and achieve tax-deferred growth. Meanwhile, Roth IRAs and Roth 401Ks allow you to pay taxes at today’s low rates and enjoy tax-free growth going forward.
  • Consider a Roth IRA conversion. Having taxable, tax-deferred, and tax-free accounts could be part of a broader tax diversification and mitigation strategy.
  • Be aware of your realized net capital gains and losses for the year and any net capital loss carry over you may have from prior years. This will help you anticipate factors that will impact your 2010 tax bill.
  • If you have a net realized capital gain for 2010 and no carry over loss to offset it, consider harvesting some losses from your taxable portfolio to mitigate your tax bill. Remember, long term losses must first be used to offset long term capital gains. Further, short term losses must first offset short term gains. After this netting out process, any remaining long term loss can be used to offset short term gains.
  • If in your probability assessment you have determined that the tax cuts are not likely to be extended, consider proactively selling long-term investments with embedded gains and subject yourself to the maximum 15% capital gains rate as opposed to the 20% rate you may be subject to in the future. In fact, if you are in the 10% or 15% marginal income tax bracket in 2010, you can recognize long term capital gains tax free.
  • Mutual funds often distribute capital gains at the end of the year, which can catch people unaware. The owner of a mutual fund can contact the mutual fund company and ask what they anticipate the distribution will be. Once you have this information, you can take the appropriate steps to mitigate the tax liability.

Estate Taxes

Another effect of the Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001 is that the estate tax was completely phased out in 2010. If there are no modifications to this law change, any estate, regardless of size, can be passed to heirs completely tax free. The estate tax is scheduled to return in 2011. However, while there is no estate tax, inherited property no longer receives a step-up in basis, exposing those assets to potentially large capital gains taxes when sold. Watch for adjustments, as these laws are likely to be altered soon.

If you have any questions regarding tax planning as it pertains to your financial plan please call your Net Worth Advisory Group advisor.  If you’re not currently a client, feel free to call and schedule a complimentary consultation.

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Rolling a Roth 401(k)

By Lon Jefferies | Published: October 28, 2010

Thanks to my friend Jim Blankenship, CFP, for his thoughts:

Roth 401(k)s are great retirement savings tools for many individuals. However, there are a couple of rules you may not be aware of concerning these investment vehicles.

When you leave your employer, generally speaking, you should always rollover your Roth 401(k) to a Roth IRA. This is because minimum distributions (RMD) are required from Roth 401(k)s beginning at age 70.5, while RMDs are not required from Roth IRAs.

A Word of Caution

Generally, both Roth 401(k)s and Roth IRAs require you to be 59.5 and have held the account for five years before the distribution is qualified, and therefore, tax-free. However, if you have owned the account for less than five years, the time in the Roth 401(k) doesn’t count toward time held in a Roth IRA.

For example, if you rollover the Roth 401(k) account before you’ve met the five year requirement, all the time you’ve held that account is wiped out, and the five-year holding period starts anew. If you put the funds into a new Roth IRA, you will have to wait another five years before you can take the money out in a qualified fashion.

Meanwhile, if you’ve held the Roth 401(k) for five years or longer and you reach age 59.5, rolling the funds over to a Roth IRA allows you to withdraw the funds at any time, for any purpose, without tax.

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Diversify Your Diversification Strategy

By Lon Jefferies | Published: October 11, 2010

Diversification is one of the most commonly used terms in financial planning. Most people know they should invest in both stocks and bonds, own U.S. and international securities, and buy large cap and small cap stocks. However, there is another way to diversify your portfolio that could produce significant savings: tax diversification.

Diversification is important because we can’t predict the future. Will value stocks outperform growth stocks next year? Since we don’t know, it is wise to invest in both so part of our portfolio is likely to benefit regardless of what happens.

Will your earned income cause you to be in a higher or lower tax bracket when you retire?  Even more abstract is the question of whether income tax rates as a whole will be higher or lower in the future. Further, how will the capital gains tax rate compare to the ordinary income tax rate 10, 20, or 40 years from now?  Again, because we can’t predict the future, tax diversification may be useful.

Tax-deferred accounts such as 401(k)s or traditional IRAs enable you to delay paying taxes on today’s income until you withdraw it during retirement. These accounts are useful if you will be in a lower tax bracket during retirement. Contributions to tax-free accounts such as Roth 401(k)s or Roth IRAs do not allow a tax deduction now, but all growth on your investments can be withdrawn tax free during retirement. Tax-free accounts are valuable if you will be in a higher tax bracket after you retire. Finally, growth on investments in a taxable brokerage account is subject to capital gains tax, which is currently favorable compared to the ordinary income rate.

If you don’t know your future tax bracket, you can hedge your bets by investing in both tax-deferred and tax-free accounts. Further, since we are unclear how the capital gains rate will compare to the ordinary income rate in the future, investing in a taxable account may also have a purpose.

Tax diversification offers other benefits. Both tax-deferred and tax-free accounts can’t typically be accessed before age 59.5 without a 10 percent penalty. However, early retirees could draw from a taxable account in years before they are allowed to take penalty-free withdrawals from their retirement accounts. Further, required minimum distributions (RMDs) from tax-deferred accounts must begin at age 70.5. Meanwhile, RMDs aren’t required from taxable and tax-free accounts. Thus, having part of your portfolio in these accounts can prevent you from having to withdraw more than you want, which can lower your tax bill and allow for more tax-free growth.

Having various investment accounts can also lower your marginal tax rate. Someone withdrawing $100,000 a year from a tax-deferred account would fall into the 25 percent federal tax bracket. On the other hand, if the individual withdrew $50,000 from a tax deferred account and $50,000 from a tax-free or fully taxable account, which doesn’t count as earned income, the investor would be in the 15 percent tax bracket.

Speak to a fee-only financial planner to learn if you could benefit from this strategy.

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Happy Talk

By Lon Jefferies | Published: October 5, 2010

Jeff Thredgold publishes a weekly blog concerning economic updates. This week he listed the following positive statistics:

  • Economic output of the average American worker is 10 times that in China. Americans won 30 Nobel prizes in science and economics during the past five years. China?…just one
  • The value of a university education for American men and women in terms of future earnings power is nearly twice that of those in the average rich nation
  • Violent crime in the U.S. declined during 2009 for the third consecutive year. Reported property crime is at a 20-year low
  • Roughly half of the 50 states have added jobs during the most recent 12-month period. Formerly, every state had dealt with recession at some point during the past three years
  • Even as U.S. economic output (GDP) has climbed by more than 210% since 1970, aggregate emission of six principal air pollutants has plunged by 60%
  • The number of people who have quit smoking (46 million) now exceeds the number who still smoke (45 million). Less than 21% of adults smoke today, versus nearly half in the early 1950s
  • The U.S. Justice Department said the number of juvenile offenders declined 26% between 2000 and 2008
  • During the early 1960s, the five-year survival rate from cancer for Americans was one in three. Today it is two in three…continuing to climb…and the highest in the world
  • A recent poll of more than 12,000 global business figures conducted by the World Economic Forum ranked the U.S. as the world’s most competitive economy
  • The earnings gap between men and women has shrunk to a record low. Women on average earn 83% of what men earn, versus 76% a decade ago. Women with comparable education and experience earn comparable incomes
  • Conventional thirty-year fixed-rate mortgages have averaged 4.35% in recent weeks, the lowest level in nearly 50 years
  • For every dollar of U.S. economic output generated today, we burn less than half as much oil as 30 years ago
  • Women have drawn even with men in holding advanced degrees in the U.S.
  • Men’s contribution to housework has doubled over the past 40 years, while their time spent on child care has tripled
  • U.S. traffic deaths per 100 million miles traveled during 2009 were the lowest on record
  • Roughly 47% of science and engineering degrees of those ages 25 to 39 are held by women, compared with 21% among those 65 and older
  • America produces more steel today than 30 years ago, despite the shuttered plants and slimmed-down work force
  • Energy-efficient appliances, cars, buildings, and other technologies that already exist could lower U.S. energy usage 30% by 2030
  • The worldwide income of women is expected to rise by nearly half during the next three years
  • An estimated 925 million people worldwide are undernourished, down from slightly more than one billion in 2009. Obviously, more needs to be done
  • The U.S. accounted for nearly one-third of the $1.1 trillion spent globally on research & development in the latest data available
  • Total U.S. workplace fatalities declined to their lowest point on record last year
  • Donations to charity were near the all-time high in 2009, with nearly $304 billion donated by individuals, foundations, and corporations. As a percentage of GDP, Americans gave twice as much as the next most charitable nation…England. In 1964, there were 15,000 U.S. foundations. By 2001, there were 61,000
  • Smoke-free laws in restaurants, bars, the workplace, etc. reduced the rate of heart attacks by an average of 17% after one year in those communities where the bans had been adopted
  • The Dow average has rebounded 64% since its low in early March 2009, with even larger gains by other measures
  • Roughly 80% of companies that suspended or reduced their 401(k) matches during the past 2-3 years plan to reinstate them this year or in 2011
  • The divorce rate dropped by one-third between 1981 and 2008, and is at its lowest level since 1970
  • U.S. exports to China have risen roughly 24% per year since 2001, making China the fastest growing market for U.S. goods
  • The number of American volunteers rose 2.0% to 61.8 million in 2008. Among young adults, the number of volunteers rose 5.7%
  • Women now make up a record 46% of global MBA candidates. More than 70% of students surveyed name the U.S. as the top MBA study destination
  • The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is up a modest 1.1% during the most recent 12-month period
  • The number of people using public transportation hit a 52-year high during 2008
  • Alcohol-related traffic fatalities in the most recently reported year dropped by more than half versus 20 years ago
  • Average U.S. life expectancy has reached 78 years (men 75, women 80), the highest ever. This compares to 76 years in 1995, 68 years in 1950, and 47 years in 1900
  • Children’s deaths from unintentional injury have dropped by almost 40% since 1987. Bicycle deaths fell 60%, while firearms-related deaths fell 72%
  • Roughly 30% of trash was recycled or composted in the latest year, versus 16% in 1990
  • A record 50.5 million foreigners visited the U.S. during 2008
  • Seat belt usage by Americans was at 82% in 2007, versus 49% in 1990 and 14% in 1983
  • A record 30% of men have earned a bachelor’s degree or higher, versus 29% of women, also a record. This compares to a combined 7.7% in 1960. A record 85% of adults over age 25 now have at least a high school diploma, versus 24% in 1940
  • Substantiated cases of childhood sexual abuse have fallen 49% since 1990. Physical abuse of children is down by 43%
  • U.S. teen pregnancy and birth rates plummeted to all-time lows in recent years, before a slight rise. The reasons? More widespread use of birth control, more work opportunities, and more girls who “just say no”
  • Flexible work schedules are now the norm for 43% of workers, up from 29% in 1992 and 13% in 1985. This allows greater flexibility for more people, especially those with children
  • Productivity of U.S. workers rose an average of 2.6% annually during the past 10 years, the largest gains in 40 years. Rising productivity is a long-term key to higher standards of living
  • The upward “mobility” of the typical American remains the greatest in the world. Why? The U.S. economy “rewards” the combination of hard work and educational achievement more than ever before…and more than any other country in the world
  • The U.S. role of dominance in the global economy during the past decade was as clear-cut as at any time since the 1950s

Subscribe to Jeff’s blog at http://www.thredgold.com/tea-leaf/

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Asset Allocation vs. Diversification

By Lon Jefferies | Published: September 1, 2010

Astute investors realize the appeal of finding investment options that do not move in step with one another. Over time, we expect the stock market to increase in value, albeit with short-term fluctuations. Ideally, it would be great to identify an investment that increased in value when stocks faltered which would smooth out the volatility in a portfolio.

Traditionally, there are several asset categories that have this type of relationship: stocks and bonds, US stocks and international stocks, large cap stocks and small cap stocks, etc. Over time, the strength of the correlations between these asset classes has varied. To avoid having all your investment eggs in one basket, it is important to have appropriate asset allocation and diversification strategies, and to understand the difference between the two.

Asset allocation is the most basic and important component of investing. An asset allocation is simply the percentage of your portfolio invested in stocks, bonds, and cash. Your asset allocation is the primary determinate of how risky your investment portfolio is. Stocks are the most aggressive investment, bonds are a middle-of-the-road option, and cash is the safest way to invest your money. Of course, the higher the risk of your portfolio, the higher the return you should expect.

Asset allocation, not market timing or asset selection, will account for approximately 92% of your investment return. An appropriate allocation that matches your risk tolerance will help you obtain the rate of return necessary to achieve your investment goals while limiting volatility so you can sleep at night.

A well-devised asset allocation does not ensure you are appropriately diversified, however. For example, if you have determined that you should have 60% of your investments in stocks, you shouldn’t invest that full 60% in one stock. In fact, you shouldn’t have the bulk of your investments in the same asset category (large cap, mid cap, small cap, international, growth, or value).

To be adequately diversified you should have representation in each of the major asset categories. Further, you should own at least 50 stocks in each category. (Owning a large amount of your employer’s stock in your 401k is a common way of breaking this rule.) This steps will prevent your portfolio from plummeting due to the performance of one under-performing stock.

Diversification applies not only to stocks, but also to the bond side of your portfolio. Many people invest solely in U.S. corporate bonds, but they should be rounding out their portfolio and reducing risk by also investing in U.S. Government bonds and international bonds.

If done properly, determining an asset allocation that is right for you will help ensure your portfolio is correctly positioned on the risk-return continuum. Diversification is an additional step that spreads your investment bets across various asset classes to prevent your entire portfolio from suffering losses all at once. Incorporating both strategies will lessen the volatility in your portfolio and increase your chances of reaching your investment goals.

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The Importance of The Yield Curve

By Lon Jefferies | Published: August 31, 2010

Historically, the yield curve has been a strong predictor of where the U.S. economy is headed. Essentially, the yield curve is the difference between long-term (10-year treasury notes) and short-term (two-year treasury notes) U.S. government debt yields. Basically, if long-term debt is offering significantly higher returns than short-term debt, investors are expecting the economy to expand. Conversely, nearly every time the yield on short-term debt has surpassed the yield on long-term debt – known as an inverted yield curve – a recession has followed.

Back in February, the difference in yields on the 10-year and two-year treasury notes hit 2.929 percentage points, which was a record high. The yield curve is now at 2.16 percentage points, which is still quite high by historical standards. This is a key reason why many economists see little chance of a double dip recession.

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